Showing posts from January, 2012

Creating a time series forecast using IBM SPSS Modeler

In today's post, we discuss how to create a time series forecast using IBM SPSS Modeler.  For the purposes of our exercise, we will use historical sales data at a SKU (stock keeping unit) level.  This data is provided in a MicroSoft Excel .xlsx file and must be in the following format:

In the image above, AAAAA through EEEEE are SKU numbers with the relevant monthly sales data provided in the respective columns.  There is also a column that indicates the grand total of all SKUs sold in a month (AAAAA +...+ EEEEE + other SKUs not shown in the image above).  The last column in the image above reflects the months for which historical sales data are provided.

As with any modeling exercise, we first insert a source node into the modeling canvas.  Since our data is in the MicroSoft Excel .xlsx file format, we insert an Excel source node as follows:

On exporting to a Table node, we see the output display as follows:

We then add a Filter node to select the five SKUs that we will be creati…